Quote from: Emily
Indeed, he got where he is based on luck. He inherited hundreds of millions of dollars and a successful business. He ran for president in a year in which the mood was perfect for a populist authoritarian to rally a nativist right-wing mob. He wouldn't have been successful in a normal election year. Note - Bernie Sanders was quite successful as well. Because the mood was not perfect, but it was good, for an anti-establishment left-wing mob. Sanders wouldn't have been as successful in most election years.
We can talk about how he's generated his wealth another time, but I'd like to talk about this election. When I asked about his luck, was it luck when he defeated 16 other candidates in the primary? Was it luck that he generated the highest vote count in the history of the Republican party? I don't think so. When you say that Trump wouldn't have done well in any other election year, maybe a case could be made that he has tremendously good timing.
Quote from: Emily
Trump is only a genius in the sense that Brian Wilson is a genius - it's a native talent, not a matter of intellect. Trump has a talent for self-promotion and sales. But I don't think he's particularly talented at that. He's failed repeatedly at his business ventures; he can't control his spending; he's robbed and lied and scammed his way through a 40 year career and yet has only gained about 7% on his inheritance - worse than I have done on what I started with - probably worse than most people on the board have done. He's done worse than index funds over the same period. He doesn't seem to be a particularly better sales person than the late night infomercial people. Every one in the country knows about those snuggly blanket-things. Whoever made those probably made more than 7%. I'm pretty sure anyone who inherited hundreds of millions of dollars and wanted to be famous could be. Is Paris Hilton a genius?
In the campaign, he's run through multiple advisors who have tried to teach him how to manage the general election but, again, he can't learn - his numbers have barely budged through the entire general election campaign. 42% He's got his natural audience, but he's been unable to expand it. Whatever "genius" he has, it's not linked to intelligence, and he has not "mastered" any "arts".
In the campaign, he's run through multiple advisors who have tried to teach him how to manage the general election but, again, he can't learn - his numbers have barely budged through the entire general election campaign. 42% He's got his natural audience, but he's been unable to expand it. Whatever "genius" he has, it's not linked to intelligence, and he has not "mastered" any "arts".
Tell you what, if Paris Hilton spends 18 months in politics, convinces millions and millions of Americans that she's the best leader for the country and ends up with a very real chance of being leader of the free world, then absolutely I'll consider her a genius. If we put money aside for the moment, if you don't think that he's good at self promotion, then I don't think there's anything I can say to convince you otherwise. Everyone in the country might know about snuggle blankets, but can you name the person that invented it?
In the campaign he has gone through a few advisors and like I said in a previous post, he'll use every tool he can to get ahead. Whatever works.
Quote from: Emily
The way you and his supporters perceived his performance in the debates is - there's statistical proof - a minority perspective. His 'persuasion' failed to convince anyone new, which was his assignment.
Quote from: Emily
Again, his supporters weren't his target (or wouldn't have been if he had the capacity to learn). He lost support during the debates. Getting his supporters to cheer is not an election-winning skill.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqxQRkVgLUg
Depends what statistics you wanna pay attention to. I'm not tying my soul down to a CNN focus group, but I wouldn't put too much stock into polls and stats. It's like you said, this isn't a normal election year.
Quote from: Emily
In fact, her positive ratings among her supporters have been increasing and her negative ratings among former undecided/third-party supporters have been decreasing. That would indicate that "defending" her is getting easier for anyone who has any desire to do so. The 42% would never want to defend her, of course.
Now there is a difference between Trump and Hillary supporters. Trump has been immunising his supporters from media attacks from the very beginning. You know how he's had 'scandals' that would have taken down a politician every other year? It's not luck that he's still in the running. Trump has absorbed each of these attacks and managed to successful reframe it in every instance. His supporters are used to the non-stop attacks and have become resistant, like a superbug.
Hillary has had a different strategy. She's shrunk from the spotlight and hidden for as long as possible trying to run out the clock. Children have been conceived and born in the time between her press conferences. Even now she's less than visible with only a handful of appearances before election day. She can't deal with big attacks, so come November 8, we're going to see who wins: Superbug or normal immune system.
Quote from: Emily
Because we associate political mobs with negative things: witch trials; Nuremberg rallies; tarring and feathering; pitchforks and torches, public stonings. Have you seen anyone hold the sorts of political rallies Trump's been having since WWII? It's not really done. We seem to have decided it's best to leave the whole crazed mob thing to sports and teen-idol audiences.
Did you get that vibe from Bernie's rallies? I know the media likes to paint Trump as dark (https://i.sli.mg/yZQ89U.jpg) but I don't see it. Now this isn't a stab at you but the whole Hitler angle is such a played out argument that it's become a joke (http://thedeclination.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/everyone-i-dont-like-is-hitler-the-emotional-childs-guide-to-political-discussion-1452799024.jpg).
Interestingly, I've heard from some people that Hillary gives off a cult leader vibe. Maybe it's the crazy eye's or the yelling, but some people draw comparisons to the leader of Heaven's Gate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_T8tMk-ZOx8